“Dry air and intense wind shear will tear Rafael apart in the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane will quickly lose wind intensity as it approaches the coast. There is a possibility that Rafael could end up meandering in the Gulf off the coast of Louisiana and never make landfall in the U.S. as it falls apart into a cluster of thunderstorms.”

Rafael intensified into a Category 1 hurricane Tuesday evening in the Caribbean near the Cayman Islands as it headed for the Gulf of Mexico, forecasters said.

While Rafael is forecast to continue moving west through the Gulf until Saturday, Reinhart said it's still unclear where the system will go after that. Some hurricane models show